Figure 1

The Old Economy Falls.
The New Economy Rises.

Both lines measure share of the U.S. labor force. One falls from 90% to 1.3%. The other rises from 0% to 60%.

Agriculture (% of labor force)
Workers in occupations that didn't exist in 1940 (Autor et al., MIT)
90% 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% 90% 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% Agriculture New occupations 1790 1860 1900 1940 1980 2024 90% 79% 53% 40% 26% 8% 1.3% 0% (1940 baseline) 60% of workers in jobs that didn't exist in 1940 The lines cross

The blue line is the fear. The green line is the reality. Farming fell from 90% of the American workforce to 1.3% across more than two centuries. That is the largest job displacement in history, and it happened gradually enough that most people do not think of it as a catastrophe. MIT economist David Autor and colleagues found the other side of that story: 60% of all American workers today hold jobs in occupations that did not exist in 1940. Among professionals, the share is 74%. In health services, 85%. The economy did not just replace what was lost. It created far more than anyone standing in a field in 1790 could have imagined.

Sources: Agriculture: 1790 Census (approximately 90% of population in farming); 1820 Census; USDA/NASS, History of Agricultural Statistics; NBER, "Labor Force and Employment, 1800-1960" (Lebergott); "Revised Estimates of the United States Workforce, 1800-1860" (Weiss); Gilder Lehrman Institute; BLS current employment data. New occupations: Autor, Chin, Salomons & Seegmiller, "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940-2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 139, Issue 3, August 2024, pp. 1399-1465. The 60% figure represents the share of 2018 employment in occupational titles added to the Census Bureau's index after 1940. Both lines measure share of the U.S. labor force.